NFL week 14 picks against the spread

Good football is finally here with SIX great games! Picks for every game with the Patriots, Packers and Seahawks as best bets

Week 14 means four games left and the start of fantasy football playoffs, and the games are getting good. This feels like the best week of football in months, with six really good games against .500-or-better teams. Finally, some real football! It almost feels like a playoff weekend.

There’s a Jags-Seahawks defensive showdown, a Wentz-Goff NFC battle, longtime Steelers-Ravens and Chiefs-Raiders rivalry games with a ton on the line, and more. This is the week of football we’ve been waiting for, so clear out your schedule and get your bets in.

Football this time of year is all about motives and figuring out which teams have everything to play for and which ones are ready for vacation. We just hit our 100th win of the season and sit 100–86 on the year with a tidy 62% win rate on best bets. Let’s get you some Christmas shopping money…

Off to a good start! Huge win for the Falcons. Had to have it.

Last week the Broncos were a road favorite, and now they’re home underdogs to a Jets team that was supposed to be one of the worst in the league this year. Remember that vaunted Denver defense? The Broncos have lost eight in a row and are allowing over 30 points a game in that stretch. The Jets have been pesky and fun with nine straight one-score games, and 38-year-old Josh McCown is suddenly a top ten fantasy quarterback.

Jimmy Garoppolo had some moments in his first start as a 49er, hooking up frequently with Marquise Goodwin and rookie Trent Taylor. San Francisco may have found an answer, and Jimmy G could be even better against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The 49ers have won two of three and still play the Titans, Jaguars, and Rams. They could be one of those pesky teams that springs an upset or two.

Technically the Bengals can still get to 9–7, but it’s not happening. It’s Cincinnati so they’ll probably win just enough to keep Marvin Lewis for the umpteenth straight year. Chicago has been bad on the road, just 1–4 with losses by 21, 22, and 28 points. Mitch Trubisky is averaging just 155 yards a game and might struggle to hit even that against a pretty solid secondary.

Fine, the Titans have something at stake, but you’re forgiven if didn’t even notice. The Titans are 8–4 and the current AFC 3-seed but they have a -16 point differential on the season. They keep winning games, but it’s hard to explain why. The Cardinals are 5–7 with an awful -91 point differential. That’s only five points better than 2–10 San Francisco. These teams are both worse than their records. Arizona is just more worse.

Detroit may be this year’s good bad team. They’re just 1–6 against teams above .500 but 5–0 against all the bad teams, winning by at least 12 in all but one of those games. Lucky for them, Tampa Bay is bad. As long as Stafford can play against the worst pass defense in the league, the Lions should be fine.

Like Detroit, we get a superficially low line with a banged-up quarterback that looks likely to play and a team that has a lot of motivation to win against a bad team that doesn’t. LeSean McCoy and the Buffalo defense should be enough even if they can’t get much from Tyrod Taylor because the Colts are still only a few bounces away from 0–11.

The line suggests Dallas is more than a touchdown better than the Giants on a neutral field, but these Cowboys might not be a touchdown better than anyone. Dallas won last week thanks to four turnovers and a punt return TD, but don’t forget the same Cowboys scored single digits the previous three weeks. Dak Prescott has lost his way, and the Giants get Eli Manning back and get that new coach boost with Ben McAdoo finally gone. Nine of the last matchups between these rivals have been one score games.

Los Angeles (yep, still weird) has won six of eight and could easily have 10 or 11 wins right now if they, you know, weren’t the Chargers. Of course they’re actually just 6–6 and haven’t beaten a team above .500. Washington’s line is banged up and the offense has been bleeding sacks and turnovers all year, which is the exact wrong formula against a Chargers defense great at forcing both. It feels like this line is a little too high and practically begging you to take Washington, which is why we’re sticking with the Chargers.

The red hot Chiefs start feels like ages ago, and now both of these teams are 6–6 and playing for the division lead. Kansas City has lost six of seven, but five of those losses were by one score and came down to the final two minutes. One of them was the weird 31–30 Thursday night game against the Raiders, but the Chiefs had won eight of nine matchups between the rivals before that one and should’ve won that too if not for a wild ending. This feels like the week they finally right the ship at Arrowhead.

The Vikings have won eight in a row with six wins against teams .500 or better, and they’d be the NFC 1-seed if the season ended today. Pretty crazy for a team that’s been missing Sam Bradford and Dalvin Cook most of the year. Carolina feels like the NFC version of the Titans, continuing to quietly win games without really impressing. Both of these teams win with defense, so expect a low-scoring close game. Gotta keep that Minnesota reverse jinx going.

One of the sport’s best rivalries returns Sunday night in a rivalry the Ravens have dominated of late. Baltimore has won five of their last nine in Pittsburgh and nine of 14 matchups overall, and these games are almost always close — 14 of the last 19 were within one score. As always, both teams play a lot of great defense. The Ravens might not actually be good, a terrible 0–4 against current playoff teams with a -65 point differential. Then again, the Steelers stink against bad teams, with six wins this season by one score, all against teams .500 or worse.

The year is 2017. Forty-year-old Tom Brady is in contention for MVP, Bill Belichick is pulling out all the stops, and the Patriots are coasting to a first-round bye yet again. New England’s won its four games since the bye week by 88 points, allowing just two touchdowns during that stretch. They’ve also dominated Miami for the better part of a decade, winning 12 of the last 15 matchups by an average of 19 points. Besides, it’s either this or betting on Jay Cutler at home in a Monday Night Football game.

Shouldn’t an 0–12 team be more than a three-point dog against most teams, even ones quarterbacked by Brett Hundley? Cleveland has lost five in a row by double digits, and these Packers can smell the return of Aaron Rodgers and desperately need this one to chase down Seahawks, Panthers and Falcons teams — all two wins ahead of them in the standings. They’ll find a way.

Could this be a Super Bowl matchup? It’s hard to imagine, but both are 8–4 and it’s the Jaguars sporting the ferocious defense, even more so than Seattle. Still, Seattle has a top five run defense and a secondary that’s held up despite all the injuries. Jacksonville either wins big or loses — every Jags game but one is either a loss or a win by 12+. Well they’re probably not going to blow the Seahawks out, and if this one is close coming down the stretch, are you taking Russell Wilson or Blake Bortles? That’s what I thought.

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